The Dallas Stars have been a terrific team since reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in the summer of 2020 during the pandemic bubble. They have developed a largely homegrown core into a perennial Stanley Cup contender and made some terrific trades along the way, integrating major players into the lineup without missing a beat.
However, despite all their regular-season success, the Stars haven’t been able to translate that strong play into ultimate playoff success, and they find themselves in danger of becoming like the San Jose Sharks of old, a team that was always in the Cup conversation but never had a chance to lift it.
The Stars have been knocking on the door for years, reaching three consecutive Western Conference Finals, but have not reached a Stanley Cup Final since 2020 and lost in the first round of this year’s playoffs to the Minnesota Wild. This year’s loss was especially painful after an 112-point season, but it also served as a reminder that the Stars have many players on the wrong side of 30 who have logged a lot of mileage.
Matt Duchene is 35, Tyler Seguin is 34, Jamie Benn is 37, and even Mikko Rantanen is turning 30.
Benn and Seguin were once the Stars’ cornerstones, but now Benn is a depth player making near the league minimum, though he remains valuable for his leadership and depth scoring. Benn posted 15 goals and 21 assists in 60 games last season, which is more than reasonable for a 37-year-old who has lost his foot speed.
Benn can still contribute as a middle six option, but his last two playoff showings have left a lot to be desired. In 24 playoff games over the last two seasons, Benn has just a single goal and two assists for three points.
If Dallas is going to break through in the playoffs, depth players like Benn need to find their offensive game when things tighten up.
Seguin, on the other hand, is a major question mark heading into this season, the final year of an eight-year, $78.8MM contract. He has dressed for just 47 games over the past two seasons.
While he’s been productive in that short time, Dallas needs him both healthy and productive. Over the past two years, Seguin has posted 16 goals and 22 assists in those 47 games, which is a far cry from his prime but still quite respectable for a player approaching his mid-30s.
A healthy Seguin would go a long way to helping Dallas in the playoffs, and he should be motivated to do so given that he is playing for his next contract and likely wants to prove he has plenty of solid years left in the NHL.
The Stars did a phenomenal job pivoting from Benn and Seguin to their new young core, but much of that core is now approaching their late 20s and has received their big paydays. Jason Robertson hasn’t had his big payday yet, but it is coming, whether the Stars pay it or not.
The 26-year-old Robertson is one of the Stars’ most valuable players and signed a one-year deal for $12MM this summer, which will take him to unrestricted free agency, where he will most certainly exceed $15MM annually.
That will surely add to the salary-cap pressure already squeezing the Stars, although dropping Seguin’s cap hit will provide some relief. Dallas has seven players carrying an AAV of about $8MM this upcoming season, which has forced tough cap cuts to their lineup, including this summer, when they were effectively forced to deal forward Mavrik Bourque to facilitate other moves and remain cap compliant.
At just 24 years of age, Bourque could still have more to unlock in his play, but the bigger problem for Dallas is that championship-calibre teams win by surrounding their top players with cheap, skilled depth, and that ship might have sailed for the Stars.
Now, don’t get it twisted. The Stars have some excellent young players.
Wyatt Johnston is 23, Robertson is 27, Miro Heiskanen is 27, and Thomas Harley is 25. That is a legitimately strong core of prime-aged players, but the issue for the Stars is that they are all paid quite well, and the drop-off from the top players to the depth players is dramatic, to put it mildly.
That depth isn’t likely to improve over the next few years, and if anything, it might get worse.
Dallas arguably has one of the worst farm systems in the NHL, and it’s not likely to provide much future support for their prime-aged core. The Stars’ thin pipeline has largely been eroded by their win-now moves, particularly the bold Rantanen acquisition, which has yet to pay off.
That trade accelerated the Stars’ timeline for contention and likely shortened their window of contention as well, given what Dallas gave up to Carolina (Logan Stankoven, multiple first-round picks).
It’s not to say Dallas is bad or in a bad spot. They’re among the NHL’s elite teams, but one has to wonder how many more kicks at the can they’re going to get.
Robertson’s next contract has the potential to price the Stars further out of improving their depth, or, if he were to walk away, it would put even more pressure on the Stars’ top players. The group in Dallas is certainly good enough to go on a run and win a Stanley Cup, but one has to wonder whether they can do so before NHL economics forces difficult moves, tears apart the core, or further erodes the depth around it.
Every NHL contender eventually has to face the reality that their time to contend is over. Even Stanley Cup champions have to swallow their pride, sell off assets, or watch them retire and ride off into the sunset.
Dallas will be no different, but it’s fair to wonder whether they will get to capture the Stanley Cup before that inevitable day comes.