With former general manager Steve Yzerman no longer at the helm, the Detroit Red Wings have begun searching for their next GM. Yzerman’s legacy in Detroit as a player is legendary, but his tenure in office is murky. He leaves behind a roster closer to contention than when he arrived, though it never made the playoffs while he was in charge.
Whoever takes over Yzerman’s old job certainly won’t be starting from scratch, but they won’t exactly be taking over a contender either. That said, they will face difficult decisions about a promising group of players, and they’ll have financial flexibility and young talent to leverage. So what exactly will Detroit’s next GM inherit?
First and foremost, they will be taking over a young core with some solid pieces to build around. Defenseman Moritz Seider is one of the league’s best young blueliners, can play in all situations, and is locked up long term at a very reasonable $8.55MM per season. Forward Lucas Raymond is another building block, a 24-year-old top-line winger making a shade over $8MM annually on a long-term deal.
Simon Edvinsson is developing into a top-four defenseman, and Marco Kasper looks like a productive top-nine center with room to continue to grow. The building blocks are in place, and many of them are in their early-to-mid 20s.
Despite the solid building blocks, there are still many question marks at the NHL level. Is the goaltending good enough? Is there a true superstar on the roster?
Can their center depth compete with the likes of Toronto, Florida, Tampa Bay and Ottawa?
Beyond the NHL roster, Detroit has a solid prospect pool and several NHL-ready prospects who could push for roster spots over the next two years. This should be welcome news for Red Wings fans, as one of the main criticisms of Yzerman’s work over the past few years has been costly depth signings in free agency that never panned out (Andrew Copp, Justin Holl, J.T.
Compher). More depth internally should reduce the need for expensive depth signings.
As good as the prospect system is, it suffers the same affliction as the NHL roster, meaning it is largely void of game-breaking offensive talent and ripe with complementary pieces who should be good NHL depth players. If this trend plays out the same way it has at the NHL level, Detroit will need to continue trying to acquire high-end skill outside the organization, which has not gone well in the last few years.
Shifting to their salary cap, Detroit isn’t in a bad spot when it comes to salary cap flexibility. Most of their core is already under team control, and the burdensome, unmovable contracts will largely be completed in the next two summers (Copp, Compher, Justin Faulk, etc.). This should allow the Red Wings to pursue trades as well as free agents, but they must avoid many of the pitfalls that sank the Yzerman regime, such as poor asset management and inflated free-agent signings.
Detroit has over $63MM available next summer under the cap (as per PuckPedia), with 13 players already signed. Alex DeBrincat and Kasper will take up a chunk of cash should they both re-sign, but beyond that, Detroit will have the ability to make moves. When that flexibility arrives next summer, the Red Wings’ new GM will have to decide whether the team spends aggressively or opts to preserve their flexibility and show restraint.
If they opt to get aggressive, they will need to look to the trade market, an area where the Red Wings have valuable commodities. Scott Wheeler of The Athletic ranks their prospect pool as the fourth-best in the NHL, giving them plenty of assets to work with on the trade front. Although they recently dealt their top prospect, goaltender Sebastian Cossa, they still have plenty left in the cupboard, including 21-year-old netminder Trey Augustine.
The Red Wings also have defensive prospect Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who projects as a high-end offensive defenseman, as well as forwards Carter Bear and Nate Danielson. Detroit could use any of those young men as the foundation of a trade package to acquire NHL-ready young talent. The question is whether they will do so.
But before the Red Wings’ next GM can look to the future, there are a few looming decisions to make in the here and now. First and foremost is what to do with captain Dylan Larkin, who has already requested a trade out of Detroit and doesn’t have much wiggle room on his no-trade list. Larkin is no doubt a talented NHLer, but he is a second-line center on a deep team, and the Red Wings’ eventual GM will be trying to hit a home run on a trade in which they have very little leverage.
That is a situation to monitor, and it will be interesting to see if the new general manager tries to convince Larkin to stay in Detroit.
The other immediate issue is asking Red Wings fans for patience. GMs who are backed into a corner generally don’t fare well, because they are fighting for their jobs, which usually leads to reactionary decisions that aren’t good for a team’s long-term prospects. Ownership and fans are no doubt tired of watching the playoffs without their favorite team in it, but that could be the reality going into next year as well, since the Atlantic Division has been a buzzsaw in recent years and most of the teams in it are even better this year.
The margin for error will be microscopic, and Detroit might not have the NHL talent to straddle that line.
In the more abstract sense, the Red Wings’ next general manager will need to determine what Detroit’s identity is. Are they a team that wants to play heavy and physical, or more of a quick, skilled game? Are they a defense first group or more of a high-powered offensive team?
Finding a clear identity and sticking to it will go a long way in Detroit and help solidify the Red Wings’ identity.
There are plenty of reasons for optimism in Detroit, with a young core in place, a stable salary cap outlook, great prospects on the way, and plenty of prospects to make trades and improve the team. There are also long-term concerns, thanks to a long playoff drought and the fact that they don’t have an obvious offensive star center. Detroit’s prior regime has already done much of the heavy lifting, stockpiling young talent and building financial flexibility.
The tricky assignment now for the new general manager is to turn a promising roster into consistent playoff appearances, and they will need to do that with patience, some bold trades, and perhaps a new thought process when it comes to roster construction. The difficult work of accumulating young talent and creating financial flexibility is done; the challenge now is to transform a promising roster into a consistent playoff team.
Whether that requires patience, bold trades, or a shift in organizational philosophy, the process will begin with a new GM.