What a one-year deal means for Jason Robertson and the Stars

The Dallas Stars bought themselves some breathing room.

After months of negotiations, a nixed trade, and with the threat of an arbitration hearing looming, the Stars and winger Jason Robertson put pen to paper Wednesday on a one-year, $12-million deal that keeps him in Dallas a little bit longer.

Where it all goes from there, though, remains uncertain.

The 27-year-old approaches 2026-27 fresh off a banner 45-goal, 96-point campaign in Dallas, the second-most productive season of his career. That effort closed out the four-year, $31-million pact ($7.75-million AAV) Robertson signed with the Stars back in 2022 — a deal that’s seen the winger become a pivotal piece in Dallas, the engine that’s pulled the club forward.

Over the past five years, Robertson’s put up three 40-goal campaigns, led the Stars in goals or points (or both) every year, and proven himself as an elite offensive threat league-wide. He’s amassed the ninth-most goals and ninth-most points of anyone in the league in that span, along with the seventh-most even-strength goals, the 10th-most even-strength points, and the fifth-most game winners (his 37 sitting just below Steven Stamkos’s 39, and just above Sidney Crosby’s 35).

Which led to an uncomfortable negotiation this summer between player and club, with Robertson owed a hefty raise and the Stars lacking the cap space to grant their franchise star the full weight of what he’s worth. So fraught were the lengthy negotiations, the Stars nearly traded the winger to Seattle last month for a package highlighted by the seventh-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

The Kraken were ready to offer Robertson an eight-year contract at around $15 million per season. The winger declined, and the deal died.

Now, Robertson and the Stars have found some temporary common ground, pushing the decision down the road and staving off an arbitration hearing — originally set for Saturday — that posed the risk of further damaging the relationship.

On both sides of the deal, it seems an odd decision — the rewards clear, but the risks looming large.

For Robertson, it’s a temporary step backwards — or at least a smaller step forward than seemed to be coming. Given some of the contracts we’ve seen handed out this off-season — $18 million per year to Leo Carlsson, $12.5 million per year to Bowen Byram, $11.7 million per year to Nico Hischier — Robertson’s number seems a steal for a bona fide 40-goal threat coming off one of the best seasons of his career.

The benefit for Robertson, though, is what happens next. The conclusion of the single-season pact will see the winger hit unrestricted free agency at age 27, granting him the rare opportunity to go to market in his prime, with a rising cap, as one of the top free agents available. Should he continue the run of form he’s shown of late and come up with another 40-goal campaign, he'll head into the 2027 off-season with the ability to write his own ticket, to max out his payday, pick the organization that makes the most sense, or both.

But a one-year pact puts pressure on Robertson, too. Riding high after a sterling campaign, he seemed well-positioned to earn some long-term security. The Stars, though, refused to budge on their valuation of the winger, seemingly unwilling to go higher than the $12-million AAV they handed to Mikko Rantanen on the eight-year pact he signed in Dallas last summer.

So, Robertson bet on himself.

If he performs as expected, he’ll reap the benefits of that decision a year from now. But if the season goes sideways — if injury strikes, or Robertson’s production dips, as it did two seasons ago — the complexion of that future long-term deal could change. We need only look back to former Star John Klingberg and his tumultuous path after turning down a long-term offer in Dallas, for a reminder of how quickly it can all go off the rails.

That said, there’s no question Robertson is better positioned. Realistically, he’s proven enough, and remains such an elite talent, that he’ll likely have suitors lined up around the block regardless of what he does next season, willing to give him the payday he seeks if that’s what it takes to pry him out of Dallas. But a one-year deal throws some unpredictability into the mix.

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For the Stars, the key to Wednesday’s deal was simply time.

At the moment, Dallas has little cap space with which to operate — young forward Mavrik Bourque was traded to Nashville earlier this month in part because of Dallas’s inability to sign both him and Robertson this summer. With the latter’s new deal in tow, the Stars still sit a million and change over the cap; some movement is needed to stuff them back under the ceiling.

Next season, though, the situation will be entirely different. Veteran Tyler Seguin’s hefty $9.85-million cap hit will be off the books. Six other current Stars will see their deals expire too, opening up another $7 million or so to work with.

And the league’s cap will rise another $9.5 million, granting the club even more room. All told, Dallas is projected to have upwards of $40 million in cap space next summer, giving them the ability to re-sign Robertson at a higher AAV and build out the rest of their roster from there.

Of course, the bigger-picture issue here is how exactly the Stars value Robertson. If GM Jim Nill and Co. plan on continuing to hold the line at $12 million per year, keeping Robertson and Rantanen level, then Wednesday’s deal simply quiets the noise for a few months before the same negotiations start up again, and the same stalemate takes place.

All that’s transpired to this point suggests Robertson and his camp aren’t planning on settling for $12 million per year on a long-term deal — if that was the case, it seems the two sides would’ve already signed that pact. If the Stars’ unwillingness to go above a $12-million AAV was about more than their current cap situation, then the two sides seem set to hit the same wall next summer.

The difference then will be the threat of Robertson walking for nothing, the winger now owning the opportunity to play out his contract and leave as a UFA — barring a mid-season trade that could significantly derail Dallas's 2026-27.

The way Nill sees it, the chances are still high that the winger sticks around long-term.

“During negotiations, it was very clear, through Jason’s representatives, that he wanted to be a Dallas Star,” Nill said Wednesday after the deal was announced. “We went through negotiations, went through all different scenarios, long-term, short-term, and in the end, this was probably the best fit for this time — the timing of his contract status in the league, and the timing for our team.”

Nill made clear Wednesday that the organization is still hoping to find a path to a long-term deal with Robertson.

“That’s our plan,” he said. “A lot of things happened, but that is our plan. We discussed that.

January 1st is when we can negotiate a new contract, so leading up to that, we’ll start working towards that.”

On the other side of those negotiations, though, Robertson seemed less open to simply sticking in Dallas at all costs.

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“At the end of the day, it’s a business — for them, for me,” the winger said Wednesday. “I don’t know their future plans. They don’t know our future plans either.

It’s too soon. It’s so raw; it just happened yesterday. I’m sure we’re just both content with getting it done, and now having the time to reevaluate both our futures.

“Everyone can see that they’re in a little crunch. At the end of the day, they had my rights, so I wasn’t free to go anywhere this year. The chances of staying in Dallas this off-season were high, obviously, because of that.

It just happened in this way, and obviously we’ll have time to revisit it later this year.”

Asked by the Dallas media if he feels he’ll likely be a Star long-term, Robertson chose to leave his future open.

“Listen, I’m just happy to start the season in Dallas right now,” he said. “I was planning to — they had my rights and everything, so that’s where it was leading to. Now I can focus on this season, have a good summer, kind of just leave it in the past and focus on having a great year.”

The two camps seem not far from where they started — Robertson heading into a contract year, his future uncertain, player and club unable to find common ground on a long-term deal that pays the winger what he’s worth. Given the Stars remain a bona fide contender, and will soon have cap space to work with, it’s a fair bet Robertson ends up sticking, signing on long-term.

But Wednesday’s deal brings him and Dallas no closer to that point.

If it doesn’t work out, if the situation snowballs as it has for many a star UFA-to-be, and Robertson walks, we’ll look back on this off-season as a tremendous missed opportunity for the Stars — a fumbled chance to simply sign the winger to the type of deal he’s clearly earned, or at the very least move him for a haul of assets if they felt a contract wasn’t going to materialize.

For now, the decision’s simply been kicked down the road.