The Detroit Red Wings finished 22nd in the NHL in goal production last season and their fourth- and fifth-leading scorers Patrick Kane and James van Riemsdyk are not returning
And their No. 2 scorer Dylan Larkin has his bags packed.
If the Red Wings do trade Larkin, that’s 27.1% of their offense gone. The addition of Viktor Arvidsson recoups 20 to 25 goals. That still leaves Detroit roughly 40 goals short of last season.
The possibility of the Red Wings being weaker offensively this season than last season is scary to the point that outgoing GM Steve Yzerman told perspective Larkin suitors that he needed players who can help now and not draft picks and prospects.
If the Red Wings lose Larkin and don’t land more scoring, their chances of qualifying for the playoffs are slim. Much of their offense ran through Larkin and Kane.
NHL teams win in the playoffs on the strength of defense and goaltending, but you can’t qualify for the postseason without scoring a bundle of goals. In 2025-26, the top 14 scoring teams all qualified for the playoffs. To reach that level, the Red Wings probably need to score 25 more goals than they scored last season.
They have to go from 239 to about 264 goals. If the Red Wings deal Larkin for futures, their current goal projection, with this roster, based on last season’s numbers, would be about 200 goals.
You can see why the draft picks/prospects vs. proven performers debate on the Larkin return is important. That’s especially true when you consider that a recent study shows that first round picks after No. 15 only have a 50 to 55 percent chance of playing 200 or more games in the NHL. Second round picks only have roughly a 34 percent chance of playing that many games.
The other possibility is the new general manager convincing Larkin to stay. That potential outcome is being discussed more because he was shown working out in Red Wings’ colors in a social media post.
It could mean nothing, but it is a talking point.
Larkin is one of three active centers to score 30-plus goals for five consecutive seasons. If his goals remain with the team, suddenly the Red Wings’ projection is 230.
Then improved scoring would come down to improvement from the younger players. Could Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Marco Kasper net 15 goals each? That’s certainly a ‘yes’ for Kasper if he plays in the Top Six.
Let’s not forget Kasper scored 19 goals as a rookie. Emmitt Finnie scored 13 goals last season and it’s hard to know what his ceiling is for his sophomore season.
Carter Mazur could score 10 or more goals playing on the third line, especially if Nate Danielson is his center. Danielson’s ability to contribute offense could be one of Detroit’s X factors.
The only known truth is the Red Wings must have much go their way to be able to score enough goals to be a playoff factor.