Nov 11, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Stars left wing Jason Robertson (21) moves the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the third period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images The clock is running out on the Dallas Stars and winger Jason Robertson, and several things must change within the next several days.
Perhaps those changes will indeed benefit the Pittsburgh Penguins. Dallas is in a pickle, and not the tasty, fermented kind that took over a couple of bridges in downtown Pittsburgh last weekend. According to PuckPedia.com, Dallas has only $10.6 million in salary cap space.
So, as Dallas tries to re-sign Robertson to a new contract, the great rub is that they don’t have the money. Reports over the last few months have consistently indicated that Dallas wanted to pay Robertson about $12 million, while Robertson wanted $14 million. Fair enough.
But regardless of who wins the negotiations, Dallas can’t afford their own offer, and they certainly can’t afford his request. Bear in mind, Dallas remains Stanley Cup favorites, even as oddsmakers balance the lack of a large fanbase betting on hope. They’re still +1800 to win the Cup, among the top 10 teams.
So, there’s real pressure, if not incentive, to avoid even the slightest step backward. Sure, Dallas might go through with the scheduled arbitration hearing set for Saturday. They could pummel away at Robertson’s speed and other shortcomings, either real or imagined.
Dallas can verbally hammer the player’s value while he sits there, staring a hole through them, but the odds that an arbitrator would award a salary below Dallas’s existing cap space are 0.0%. Dallas has also listened to trade offers, including from the Penguins, but thus far no one has broken that magical barrier between “thanks for calling” and “we have a deal.” However, Dallas will either need to shed Robertson or roughly $5 million in cap space very soon.
Teams can exceed the salary cap by up to 10% during the offseason, but that grace period ends days before the season. Conversely, the pressure in that overextended situation to offload salary grows while the trade price other teams will pay rapidly shrinks. In other words, Dallas is indeed stranded in Picklesburgh.
While PHN has taken the position that the Penguins’ roster and rebuild status are not ready to include a star player and expect anything else but a higher position in the middle, it seems the opportunity to acquire talent will soon open. And Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas doesn’t typically consult media for advice. There will be an opportunity, but it might not be the talent everyone expects.
Trade Realism After the Leo Carlsson offer sheet drama between Philly and Anaheim, the trade prices have risen. A realistic Robertson trade will require sacrificing three or four first-round-level pieces. That’s a first-round pick, top prospect, NHL player worthy of a first-rounder, and maybe another something.
More specifically, that’s a first-rounder (with some protection), Rickard Rakell, Harrison Brunicke, and a lesser asset. Perhaps a top prospect like Bill Zonnon or Will Horcoff, if Dallas GM Jim Nill really holds to a top-dollar ask in defiance of the situation. Or, it could be something similar to a first-round pick, Ben Kindel, Rakell, and a prospect.
Which would seemingly exacerbate the gap between the Penguins veterans and the wave of prospects who are not expected to land in Pittsburgh for two or three years at the earliest. No matter the final price tag, it will sting. Acquiring a player who can produce 100 points isn’t easy, and nor is it cheap.
But take Kindel out of the Penguins lineup and that’s a long-term hole with no immediate solutions. Sacrifice that first-rounder and another prospect, and the overall rebuild will take a significant hit, especially if it’s Brunicke, who appears ready not just to arrive but to make an impact in the NHL. But does it have to be Robertson whom Dallas trades?
After all, Dallas probably needs to clear only $5 million in cap space to make a new Robertson deal work. They could wisely look to trade salary in other areas, but they won’t sacrifice young defenseman Thomas Harley. Keep dreaming there.
Dallas doesn’t have much else to give in the way of trades that would get them across the finish line, but they do have something the Penguins need: an extra left-handed defenseman. And they could use an upgrade with something the Penguins have: a right-handed defenseman. Currently, Miro Heiskanen is the top right-side defender, but after him are Tyler Myers and Nils Lundkvist.
Could big lefty defenseman Esa Lindell be a nice consolation prize? Lindell is 32 years old, so he doesn’t fit Dubas’s long-term vision, but his brand of smooth shutdown defense would be a perfect balance to either Erik Karlsson, Kris Letang, or even Brunicke. Lindell would significantly upgrade the Penguins blue line at a salary of $5.25 million per season for the next four seasons.
And his departure would allow Dallas to sign Robertson without further drama. In fairness, there hasn’t been a peep about Dallas trading Lindell, but they’re running out of time and need to clear cap space. From afar, it would seem sacrificing Lindell would be the least harmful loss.
The Penguins are one of the teams still hunting for talent and lineup balance, and doing so with ample salary cap space. And the clock is ticking