Boston Bruins forward Fraser Minten inked a massive seven-year, $50.4MM contract extension this week, reminding Toronto Maple Leafs fans how badly the previous regime botched the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline. Minten’s deal follows an excellent first NHL season, in which he posted 35 points and established himself as an NHL center.
It’s been clear for a while that Toronto botched the March 2025 trade for defenseman Brandon Carlo, but just how bad the deal is won’t be known for years, until all the branches of the trade tree have grown out.
It’s fair to note that the Maple Leafs couldn’t have guessed just how quickly Minten would become so good, and, of course, this article is being written with the benefit of hindsight. However, when it comes to Carlo and the side of the deal that went to the Maple Leafs, Toronto had no foresight into the issues they would face in inserting the veteran defenseman into their own lineup.
Carlo’s reputation at the time of the trade far exceeded his actual on-ice impact, but in watching his game, it was fairly evident that there was no offensive upside to speak of, and that was fine. Toronto was acquiring a big stay-at-home defenseman who could take care of business in their own end.
However, Carlo’s shutdown ability had started to erode a few years before he was traded. Sure, he could still get sticks in lanes and clear the front of the net, but he wasn’t getting around as well as he once did, and his overall ability to suppress chances was being affected.
Add to that an inability to handle the puck even in a basic sense, and it led to disaster for Toronto; eventually, Carlo was dealt to the St. Louis Blues for pennies on the dollar (two third-round picks).
This move came just a year and a half after the Maple Leafs traded Minten, their 2026 first-round pick, and a 2025 fourth-round pick to acquire Carlo. Now, giving up Minten straight up for Carlo would’ve been bad, but adding a first- and fourth-round pick borders on catastrophic.
No one could’ve predicted Carlo’s downfall, and it will be interesting to see how he adapts with the Blues.
In Toronto last season, Carlo dressed in 55 games, played over 19 minutes a night, and recorded seven assists. The 29-year-old had some very ugly analytics, with the Maple Leafs struggling to control play when Carlo was on the ice, although the team didn’t do him any favors by starting him on nearly 60% of his shifts in the defensive zone.
Some might argue that is the role of the defensive defenseman, and that was the expectation Toronto likely had when they gave up a haul for Carlo. It made sense to look for a player like Carlo, a right-handed defender with size, experience, physical presence and term left on his contract.
The Maple Leafs were looking to topple the Florida Panthers, and bringing in a veteran defenseman with size who could kill penalties seemed like a relatively safe move.
Then there was the Minten side of it and Toronto’s perception of his future. Minten was a second-round draft pick in 2022 (38th overall), but he wasn’t what you would call a blue-chip prospect.
He was a good prospect, but the Maple Leafs bet he wouldn’t establish himself as an NHL regular anytime soon and that Carlo would remain a top-four NHL defenseman. Obviously, none of that turned out to be correct, but there weren’t many signs that Minten was ready to break out quickly.
He had just 19 NHL games under his belt when he was traded to Boston, with four points. Clearly, the Bruins saw something in Minten that Toronto missed, and it’s fair to wonder if they saw something in Carlo that alarmed them.
Long-term, Toronto would’ve obviously been better off keeping Minten, but they were firmly in win-now mode, and at the time that was what Carlo offered over Minten. This is always a dilemma facing NHL teams trying to make a trade deadline swap, and it often backfires on the GM trying to win now.
Plenty of other historical examples show trade deadline moves backfiring, but that is the risk NHL GMs take when they try to trade for players who help them win today.
The Minten/Carlo trade is another example of the Maple Leafs trying to maximize their core players’ window, a trend that has persisted throughout the Brendan Shanahan era and has carried over even after he left. The Maple Leafs have sacrificed everything to try to win now.
Prospects, draft picks, organizational depth and cheap young players have all been traded for established NHL players. That is what contenders do, but for the Maple Leafs, it has often ended badly, with them watching young players thrive in other markets.
Minten is a particularly painful player to watch go because he fits the mould of what Toronto could use.
Many pundits and hockey fans will pass the blame around for the Carlo/Minten debacle, but it’s hard to pinpoint any single reason things went south for Carlo and the Maple Leafs. The lion’s share of the blame, though, will fall on former Toronto GM Brad Treliving, and depending on how the first-round pick falls, Treliving could have a big part of his Toronto legacy tied to this trade.
If Minten never becomes a 40+ point player, the Bruins could end up looking foolish for this contract, but that’s unlikely given the escalating salary cap and Minten possibly only scratching the surface of his own abilities.