Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
As we do each year, PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2026-27 season, though in a slightly different format than before. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.
We begin our series with a look at the Central Division, next up is the Avalanche.
Current Cap Charge: $103,570,841
Potential Bonuses: $2.15MM ($1.15MM very likely to be reached; the rest is ATOI dependent for Brent Burns)
Dead Cap: $2,291,841 (carryover bonus charge)
Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Fabian Lysell ($850K)
Lysell warrants a quick mention here since he’s waiver-eligible. If Colorado doesn’t want to risk waiving him, he could stick around in a limited role. Even if he does, it’s hard to forecast any sort of sizable increase.
Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Brent Burns ($850K base salary plus $2.15MM in bonuses), F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM), D Cale Makar ($9MM), F Nicolas Roy ($3MM), G Scott Wedgewood ($2.5MM)
There are few players where the term ‘blank check’ could come into play. Makar may very well be one of them. With the escalating salaries, some have suggested a $20MM AAV could be doable.
Makar may want to take less to give the Avs some extra flexibility but even if so, he could double his current price tag. If Burns decides to go for a 24th NHL season, his contract should be structured similar to this one, allowing Colorado to punt some of the cost into the following year.
Lehkonen has found another gear since being acquired from Montreal, becoming more of a core player. But he still has only passed 50 points once despite his two-way utility. In the current climate, his price tag could push past $8MM per season on a long-term deal although affording that could be a challenge with Makar’s next contract.
Roy’s production has ticked down the last couple of years, putting him into a bit of a lesser role. Even so, with third-line centers clearing $4MM per season, he should have a chance to do that as well on a multi-year contract.
Wedgewood signed an early extension last season. It was understandable given that it set a new career high for salary but with how the rest of the year went, he left a lot of money on the table. An early extension now could double that price tag while a repeat showing this season could push the price tag more toward the $7MM range.
Projected Upper Limit: $113.5MM
Current Cap Charge: $80.579MM (16 players signed)
Cap Space: $32.921MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Dead Cap: None yet but likely to be a carryover penalty from 2026-27
Nearly $33MM in cap space looks great in theory but Makar, Lehkonen, and Wedgewood could cost that much combined, let alone filling out the rest of their roster. If they all re-up, whoever is GM at the time (Joe Sakic isn’t expected to be doing double-duty for too long) will have some cost-cutting to do again next summer.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): F Zachary L’Heureux ($875K), F Fedor Svechkov ($1.25MM)
Both players came over in a trade from Nashville this offseason and haven’t quite lived up to their first-round billing yet. They’re likely to be bottom-six regulars this season which likely won’t give them the offensive stats needed for huge raises. Speculatively, both could double their price tags with a decent year.
Expiring Contracts (UFA): D Noah Juulsen ($1.1MM), D Josh Manson ($3.9MM), F Brock Nelson ($7.5MM)
Nelson is the big ticket from this group. He’ll be 36 when this contract expires but on the other hand, demand for centers has never been higher. It’s not implausible to think he could get a small raise from this price tag on his next deal.
When healthy, Manson is a solid fourth defenseman but staying healthy has been a challenge over the years and he’ll turn 37 early in the 2027-28 season when his next deal will begin. A small raise could still be doable but he could also be a candidate for a bonus-laden one-year contract like Burns to give the Avs more flexibility. Juulsen just signed this deal in free agency and is more of a seventh option than a regular.
That will keep the price tag around this range moving forward.
Forecasted Upper Limit: $123MM
Current Cap Charge: $65.904MM (11 players signed)
Cap Space: $57.096MM
Potential Bonuses: None
Again, the cap room will go down significantly when Makar, Lehkonen, and Wedgewood get re-signed while retaining Nelson would take another big chunk out of it. Svechkov and L’Heureux will cut into that as well but shouldn’t drastically affect what they’ll have left to fill out the rest of their roster.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): None
Expiring Contracts (UFA): F Nazem Kadri ($5.6MM*), F Gabriel Landeskog ($7MM), F Jaden Schwartz ($3.25MM)
*-Calgary is retaining an additional $1.4MM per season on Kadri’s deal
Landeskog returned for his first regular season action since 2021-22 last season and fared relatively well in minutes that were managed pretty carefully. He’ll be 36 when this agreement ends and given the injury trouble he has had, it’s hard to see him landing more than this on his next contract. Kadri is a year older than Nelson with offensive numbers that haven’t been quite as strong but again, the expected high demand could see him land a small raise on a short-term deal unless his performance bottoms out.
Schwartz can be a second-line player when healthy but staying healthy has been a big challenge; that was certainly a factor in the contract he signed last month. He’ll be 37 when his next deal begins and given his injury history, he could be going year-to-year with incentives after that.
Forecasted Upper Limit: $133.5MM (8.5% increase)
Current Cap Charge: $50.054MM (8 players signed)
Cap Space: $83.446MM
Potential Bonuses: None
It’s safe to say that at least half of their current cap space will be eaten up by prior UFA classes while re-signing any of their 2029 UFA class will chip it down even more. But this is where things start to open up a bit more flexibility-wise.
Expiring Contracts (RFA): None
Expiring Contracts (UFA): G Mackenzie Blackwood ($5.25MM), F Parker Kelly ($1.7MM), D Sam Malinski ($4.75MM)
Kelly’s coming off a season that makes this price tag look like a huge bargain but he’s typically closer to 20 points instead of 20 goals. If he goes back to his usual production, it’s possible that he could double this price tag given some of the deals given to similar energy players this summer.
Malinski had a breakout year last season to earn him this deal, one that will come with higher expectations. They’re paying him to be more of a number four so if he can stay around the 30-point range and push closer to 20 minutes per night, that could set him up for a couple million more next time out.
Outside of his first few months with Colorado last season, Blackwood hasn’t been a true starter in recent years but more like a platoon goalie. It’s possible that the price point for a strong platoon goalie is in this range in 2030 but unless he really establishes himself as a starter, it’s hard to forecast a big raise.
Signed For 2030-31 And Beyond
For that season, there will be a new CBA in place so trying to forecast the cap and cap space basically becomes a guessing game. Accordingly, we’ll go back to the old Deep Dive format for players signed beyond the 2030-31 campaign.
D Brett Kulak ($4.75MM through 2030-31)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($12.604MM through 2030-31)
F Martin Necas ($11.5MM through 2033-34)
F Logan O’Connor ($2.5MM through 2030-31)
D Devon Toews ($7.25MM through 2030-31)
MacKinnon once set the NHL record for being the highest-paid player with this contract (one that subsequently received a $4K boost thanks to minimum salary increases) although it didn’t stand as the top deal for long. In the current landscape, it’s still a significant bargain given that he is routinely one of the top scorers in the NHL. There’s a temptation to say he could reclaim the top-paid crown but he’ll be 36 when the first season on his next contract begins.
Accordingly, it’s hard to think Colorado (or another suitor) would go that high for someone whose production should be starting to drop by then. Even so, another multi-million-dollar raise seems likely.
After being unable to lock up Mikko Rantanen long-term, they locked up the player they got for him instead at close to the contract Rantanen ultimately received in Dallas. He had a career year last season and if he can stay in the 100-point range (which is doable on MacKinnon’s wing), this deal will age quite well. O’Connor is coming off an injury-riddled year but was a solid defensive forward before that.
If he gets back to that form, they’ll get a strong return on this contract with how much the market for quality bottom-six players has moved up.
Toews is coming off a down year but is still viewed as a strong second defender. This price tag is already on the low end for someone in that role and that will only get lower over the next few years. He’ll be 37 by the end of this contract which won’t help his cause for his next deal but a short-term pact with a raise should be realistic.
Kulak just signed his deal this offseason, one that seemed a little steep both in terms of money and term. But as a strong third-pairing player who can hold his own in a pinch in a top-four role, they’re banking on that versatility coming in handy over the next half-decade. Given that he’ll also be 37 when this expires, it’d be hard to see him commanding much more than this price tag at that time.
Outlook
A team that has been in win-now mode for several years now, the Avs are no strangers to being tight to the cap ceiling. That’s going to be the case for a while yet with another offseason of potentially moving out some pieces being on the horizon next summer if Colorado can keep its core pieces in place. They’re in a good spot as a legitimate contender but it may be a little while yet before they can substantially augment their group further.
Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect.