Ranking all active NHL No. 1 picks over the next five years

Connor Bedard started a trend that, should it continue in 2027, will mark a unique moment at the top of the NHL Draft.

Bedard, of course, was the first-overall pick in 2023. Since then, three of his fellow Canadians — Macklin Celebrini, Matthew Schaefer and Gavin McKenna — have been taken in the top slot. Casting forward, the favourite to go No. 1 overall in 2027 is Canuck — and maybe a future Vancouver Canuck?

— Landon DuPont.

If, in fact, DuPont is the headliner of the 2027 event, it will mark the first time Canadian players were taken in the top spot in five consecutive years since the early 1980s.

American Brian Lawton was the first non-Canadian ever to be selected first overall at an NHL draft in 1983. Since then, Canadians have been taken No. 1 in four straight years on a couple of occasions — the most recent example before this current run was Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from 2008 to ’11 — but never in five consecutive summers.

Of course, five is also the number of years Bedard just re-upped for on a shiny new contract with the Chicago Blackhawks. So, in the name of a little off-season fun, we asked ourselves, which active first-overall selections would you want for the next five years?

We’re taking everything into account here: age, cap hit, tool kit, resume, potential, etc.

Every first-overall pick since 2004 — except 2006’s Erik Johnson and 2012’s Nail Yakupov — is expected to play the 2026-27 NHL season. Here is how we’d rank them if you were drafting them to play for the next five years.

21. Alex Ovechkin (2004)

It seems sacrilegious to put the NHL’s all-time leading goal-scorer last on any list, but Ovi — who turns 41 in September — is surely just coming back for one more twirl. Wouldn’t it be great to see him go out with his 21st 30-goal season?

20. Patrick Kane (2007)

Kane is still available on the UFA market, and there is some sense he could return to the Chicago Blackhawks to help Bedard get Chicago back on track more than 10 years after he and Jonathan Toews won a third title for the franchise in 2015. With his quick hands and brain, you could see Kane — who turns 38 in November — being a 60-point player who really helps the power play for a couple more seasons.

19. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2011)

‘RNH’ scored a career-best 37 goals in 2022-23, but has not pushed past 20 since. He’s an important player for the Oilers — and his all-around game has probably always been a little under-appreciated — but nothing really jumps off the screen with Nugent-Hopkins, and he’s now 33 years old.

18. Aaron Ekblad (2014)

Ekblad was an important member of the Florida squad that won back-to-back Cups, and he could well win more in coming years with a loaded Cats squad. That said, he’s had a devil of a time staying healthy throughout his career and turned 30 in February. The fact he’s a right-shot defenceman warrants a longer look, but it’s fair to wonder how his body will hold up on the back nine.

17. Steven Stamkos (2008)

If last year — Stamkos’ second in Nashville — proved one thing, it’s that ‘Stammer’ has still got the hammer. The longtime Lightning recorded his eighth 40-goal campaign by pumping home 42 in his age-36 season. By the way, for a guy who had such tough injury luck in the back half of his 20s, Stamkos hasn’t missed a game in two years and hasn’t missed more than three in a season since the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign.

Maybe he’s a one-trick pony at this stage of his career, but that trick is scoring goals and — once his $8-million ticket is over after the 2027-28 season — you could see him providing good goal-scoring value as a PP monster on a team-friendly contract.

16. Taylor Hall (2010)

We’re not sure Hall would be extremely valuable to every team in the NHL over the next five years, but he has found a hockey home in Carolina. Had Jordan Staal not stolen the show in the Stanley Cup Final, there’s a chance Hall could have walked away with the Conn Smythe Trophy last spring. The winter of his career — he turns 35 in November — could be the most rewarding chapter.

15. Alexis Lafrenière (2020)

Let’s welcome the first player in his 20s (Lafreniere turns 25 in October) to the list. Lafrenière is now two years removed from a career-best 28-goal season, which was obviously not the jumping-off point to bigger things we thought it could be at the time. His team has been bad the past couple years, and there’s some notion a change of scenery could ignite his future.

While he brings some size, we’re talking about a player who mans the least-valuable position as a winger and who has just not fully popped through six seasons at the NHL level.

14. John Tavares (2009)

Tavares is a classic case of not worrying too much about diminishing footspeed because he was never that fast to begin with. He’s still a tremendous slot presence who could be lethal on the power play for years to come. Tavares turns 36 right before the season starts and his game is similar to that of Joe Pavelski, who stayed productive right up to his 40th birthday.

13. Owen Power (2021)

With Bowen Byram departing Buffalo’s top four, Power will be counted on even more than in past seasons. He’s a smart, huge defenceman. If he can add some offence in the back half of his 20s — he turns 24 in November — he’ll be a vital piece in Western New York.

12. Sidney Crosby (2005)

Crosby turns 39 in August, but when asked by The Athletic at the World Championship this past spring about playing five more years, Crosby smiled and said, “That would be nice.”

Thankfully, Sid doesn’t figure to be leaving our hockey lives any time soon. He could probably be a great 1C for two more years, a magnificent 2C for two more after that and the league’s best 3C at 43.

11. Gavin McKenna (2026)

A big rookie year from McKenna, 18, would mean he deserves to be higher on this list, given he’ll be on an entry-level deal for three of the five seasons we’re looking at. And, to be fair, he’s better positioned to thrive than many top picks entering the league, as he’s joining a Leafs club with no shortage of in-their-prime, high-end talent up front.

Still, it’s hard to put McKenna — a smallish, offence-only winger — ahead of guys who play premium positions until we know he’s got a Patrick Kane-type game.

10. Jack Hughes (2019)

Hughes has not played more than 62 games in any of the past three seasons. An 80-game showing could well result in a 110-point campaign, but we’ve hit the point where we’ve got to see it from the 25-year-old.

9. Juraj Slafkovsky (2022)

The Canadiens selected Slafkovsky ahead of a couple of No. 1 candidates in 2022 because of his unicorn potential. Four years into his career, we’re seeing that bet materialize. He’s a perfect complement on the top line, but also showed an ability last year — when he put up 73 points — to drive his own line on the second unit.

At 22, we could be witnessing the best this power winger has to offer in the next five years, and he’s locked up on a team-friendly $7.6-million cap hit.

8. Nico Hischier (2017)

He’s not the most glamorous guy on our list, but centres who can get you over 30 goals and garner serious Selke Trophy consideration are extremely valuable. Hischier is still just 27 years old and inked a five-year extension of his own (with a palatable cap hit of $11.7 million) this summer.

7. Auston Matthews (2016)

It’s been a tough couple of years for the Leafs captain, but anybody with two 60-goal seasons on his resume — and another full campaign to go in his 20s — has to be taken very seriously.

If Toronto gets back on track this season, for all that’s gone on around the club, Matthews would figure to be at the centre of the resurrection.

6. Rasmus Dahlin (2018)

Only two defencemen — Cale Makar and Roman Josi — have scored more goals in the past five seasons than Dahlin. The Sabres captain is just 26 years old and, as a blue-liner, could see three or four of his best NHL years come in the five-year block we’re looking at.

Dahlin is a total package: size, thump, fire and skill.

5. Nathan MacKinnon (2013)

MacKinnon is a top-three guy on this list if we’re talking about the next couple seasons. And we can certainly expect him to be a fantastic player for the next half-decade, at least.

Still, he turns 31 in September and most of the young bucks ahead of him here have the arrow pointing directly up.

4. Connor Bedard (2023)

At times, it’s been a tough three-year entry to the league for a guy some expected to immediately fill the net. Chicago has not come close to cracking the playoffs during Bedard’s tenure, and shoulder surgery to repair an injury sustained during summer training is not a great development for a guy who has played fewer than 70 contests in two of his first three campaigns.

Still, Bedard showed how electric he can be last season with 30 goals and 75 points in 69 outings. It shouldn’t shock anyone if he wins three of the next five Rocket Richard Trophies — during his age-21 to age-25 seasons — and takes over the title of top goal-scorer in the world.

3. Matthew Schaefer (2025)

We’ve arrived at the first name on the list you have to at least think about for No. 1. If we were picking for the next 15 years, it’s definitely between Schaefer and the guy we’ll talk about next.

The Isles defenceman is already an all-around stud who doesn’t even turn 19 until September. How good is this freakin’ guy going to be when he’s 23?

2. Macklin Celebrini (2024)

At some point in the next couple of seasons, Celebrini will officially take the “it’s this guy’s league” torch.

With Bedard having inked his new deal, all eyes turn to the Sharks wunderkind now as we wait to see if there’s an extension coming. If you’re San Jose, you’d be over the moon for an eight-year term.

1. Connor McDavid (2015)

If we were doing this exercise even 12 months from now, you wonder if McDavid gets dropped to No. 2 behind Celebrini. But having ‘McD’ for five playoffs starting next spring from age 30 to 34 is still too much to pass up. He’s still playing on a sweetheart cap hit of $12.5 million for two more seasons, so even when that number spikes in 2028-29, you’re still getting good value overall for the next five years.

There remains one player in the league, above all else, who most consistently makes you doubt what your eyes just saw, and that’s not going to change for a little while yet.