Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the end to the Connor Hellebuyck saga, why the Blackhawks haven’t entered LTIR yet, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, we’ll have two more mailbag columns over the next two weekends so watch for it in one of those.
ALightningStrike: Tampa needs a right-handed top six winger, especially on the PP1. Granted, they probably can’t do anything about it until the trade deadline as they’ll have as it stands right now, $12.93MM of deadline cap space.
My question is who should or could they aim for? Do they look at a reunion with Steven Stamkos (who’s off to a hot start) or go with someone new like Owen Tippett (who is rumored to be a trade candidate yet again).
I’m just spitballing names as maybe you have your own suggestions on the topic.
FearTheWilson: Looks like the Pennsylvania teams could possibly have four righties available. Rust, Rakell, Konecny and, as mentioned above, Tippett.
Would any of them fit the bill?
To answer the first question, I’m going to go in a different direction to give you some context to my answer. It’s not the $12.93MM (per PuckPedia) that I’m worried about.
That number will inevitably go down due to injury recalls but they’ll have some room to play with. I’m more worried about 2027-28 and working backwards.
They have $29.8MM in cap space for next year available. More than half of that is going to Nikita Kucherov.
Several other free agents are going to pick up nice raises that will cost several million more than they’re making now.
With that all said, can they afford an impact player signed beyond this season from a cap perspective? I don’t think it’s a hard no but they’re probably looking at someone who isn’t overly pricey.
So that’s going to dictate my answer here.
I like the Tippett suggestion, especially since he’s a pure shooter. I think they could squeeze him in with re-signing everyone else too.
To bring the follow-up into play, the two Pittsburgh wingers fit the bill; they’re a little cheaper and easier to work in. Konecny, meanwhile, is probably too expensive.
Stamkos would be fun and fit the mantra of bringing in players familiar with the system so while I can’t rule it out, I don’t think it’s possible without either retention or some money moving the other way.
If Winnipeg winds up taking a rebuilding approach having now moved Hellebuyck, Gabriel Vilardi is appealing, though pricey at $7.5MM. He’s someone I could see Tampa Bay trying to take a run at although their trade options aren’t the greatest.
But looking at the early sure sellers, there isn’t anyone that fits the bill just yet, though that should change as the year goes on.
My initial lean before digging into this was saying that a rental might be the better way to go. But the problem with the rental group is that there are few high-end right-shot shooters on expiring contracts.
For context, there’s one 20-goal player from last year in the group and that’s Ryan Hartman. While he’s probably available in the right trade, that trade is for the center they’re seeking which takes Tampa Bay out of that mix and if I’m being honest, he doesn’t really fit the shooter bill anyway.
This does not solve the top-six element that you’re asking for but this feels like a good spot for Patrik Laine. Give him fourth-line minutes at even strength and PP1 time where Kucherov and John Carlson can feed him for one-timers.
If that revives a power play that has struggled out of the gate, that’s a low-cost partial solution that would allow them to be a bit more selective for a better fit when one becomes available later in the season.
Unclemike1526: I just noticed after looking at the Hawks’ cap that Ryan Ellis is only on the injured list, not on LTIR. I know they don’t need the space right now but is there some kind of advantage to waiting as long as possible?
I mean, the Hawks will be able to use that space, right? All of it?
Or part of it? Was just curious why they hadn’t done it yet.
I know you have to wait until the season starts but that ship has sailed. Thanks.
You technically don’t even have to wait until the season starts; there is such a thing as offseason LTIR placements. The short answer to your question is that they don’t need to do it yet.
When you place a player on LTIR, a common misnomer is that the player’s full cap hit now becomes spendable. That’s not necessarily the case.
Any remaining regular cap space is subtracted from that. In Chicago’s case, that’s over $2.3MM of full-season money, $2.6MM of in-season spending (per PuckPedia).
So, if Ellis went on season-ending LTIR (the one where the space isn’t limited to the league average salary), the Blackhawks wouldn’t get $6.25MM (his AAV) in spending room. Instead, it’d be less than $4MM, the difference between the two.
They’re better off waiting until their spending gets as close to the $104MM Upper Limit as possible and then putting him on there. Then, more of the $6.25MM would be available.
Without getting into too much detail as this isn’t the most exciting subject to read about, there’s also a benefit to getting as close to the ceiling from a day-to-day cap accrual standpoint. Put Ellis on LTIR now and if they call anyone up or acquire anyone for the rest of the season, they’re not banking cap space as their spending would be above the accruable cap space limit (ACSL).
Wait, and even if a couple of players are recalled over time, they’ll still be banking some cap room. That’s why teams only put players on when absolutely necessary.
Honestly, I think Chicago is hoping they never need to put him on there. The more they can be under the cap, the better.
A team that finishes in LTIR has no cap space left and thus any bonuses achieved count against next year’s cap. The Blackhawks have $12.75MM in potential bonuses.
Only a chunk of that (maybe 25-40%) is going to be reachable but the more they’re under the cap, the less that rolls over to 2027-28. If they spend into LTIR and stay there, however, than all of the achieved bonuses hit next year’s books.
Considering this probably isn’t a playoff year for them, might as well get as much of it paid off now as possible.
Cla23: What to do with Helly? Jets are dangerously thin in goal, a Skinner injury from total disaster.
Jets need a goalie back in a trade, I think.
Kevin Cheveldayoff, you couldn’t wait a little longer to make this trade so I could get another wrong prediction in about what would have happened? (This question was submitted before the trade was made.) I thought he was ultimately going to be paid to stay home for a bit and we’d see a trade in a week or two once the Jets bent a bit on the asking price.
So, let’s talk about Winnipeg’s return in the trade instead. Dawson Mercer is a good middle-six piece who can cover down the middle and they can try to sign him long-term as an RFA this summer.
He’s a secondary core player but they need some of those so he’s a nice get. So is Alexander Command, who I suspect is Cheveldayoff’s headliner here.
If he can be a top-six center down the road, having him and Viggo Bjorck as viable long-term options down the middle is great. I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between Nico Daws and Clay Stevenson but Daws is young and cost-controlled so they’ll have time to evaluate him.
The other three pieces aren’t big needle-movers.
For better or for worse, Skinner is now the full-fledged starter with some relatively untested options behind him. That’s fine for a rebuilding team but not so much one with playoff aspirations.
It wouldn’t shock me if they look to try to shore up the position closer to the trade deadline if they’re still in the mix.
I have to admit, I thought Winnipeg would do better than this given the Buffalo speculation back at the draft. While we don’t know the full deal with the Sabres, I think it may have been better than what they got and perhaps Cheveldayoff held firm a little too long.
On the other hand, goalies don’t get top-end returns like top skaters do. To get what should be a couple of core pieces for someone who wanted out and wasn’t even playing isn’t a terrible outcome by any stretch.
For the Jets to take a step forward, their offensive depth needs to be better. This is a good step in that direction, albeit at the cost of what was one of their franchise players.
bottlesup: After adding Hellebuyck today, what do you think the ceiling is for the Devils? Conference Final?
And do you think the Jets got fair value in return?
I covered the thoughts on Winnipeg’s side in the last question so let’s focus on the Devils. In the last mailbag column, I had them outside of the playoffs unless they went and got a true starting goalie.
They now have that, so they should comfortably be a playoff team, barring a rash of injuries.
I don’t know if I’d go as high as the Conference Final for a realistic ceiling, however. I know Carolina’s goaltending is always a question mark in itself but I don’t see any reason to not have them as the favorite to come out of that side of the bracket.
Could they win a series against them? Sure.
But a Washington-New Jersey series to get to that point could be a long one, draining whoever wins for the next round. They are definitely a better team with this move but I’m not sure they’re going to be a high-end contender just yet.
Schwa: How much longer do we wait for the first big name moved? Who do you expect to be the first?
And do you expect some others to come in succession – or not much activity until closer to deadline?
I think we now know the answer to the first two so let’s focus on the last one. I’m going to say no, I don’t expect there to be a big uptick now that one big domino (Hellebuyck) is off the table.
Generally speaking, there isn’t much in the way of early-season movement in a normal year. Teams are still evaluating what they have and what they need and typically don’t have enough cap space to do much of consequence at the moment.
This year, there have been so many injuries that quite a few teams haven’t even had their full lineup available once let alone enough times to assess things. And those injuries have necessitated recalls, further tightening their spending availability.
With a hard-cap system, teams need to have space to make a deal and it takes longer into the season for that to happen.
Now, if Dylan Larkin wants to put some teams on his yes list that actually might want to trade for him instead of packing it with teams that wouldn’t want or need him, there could be another big move coming. But Hellebuyck’s deal probably isn’t the precursor to make that happen, nor do I expect a big domino effect whenever Larkin goes.
There will be some trade fun this season, but the bulk of it will be closer to the trade deadline.
Red Wings: If Edvinsson wants $11MM but Detroit doesn’t want to go that high, doesn’t that make the front office look worse if 10 teams will throw assets and pay him the ask?
The $11MM report is on a max-term contract. The Red Wings don’t have to go there necessarily so I wouldn’t get too fixated on that just yet.
And while there are believed to be around 10 teams interested in Edvinsson, there’s no guarantee that they’re willing to go that high on a deal either. He can only get seven from Detroit, six elsewhere (barring a sign-and-trade).
Personally, I don’t think there are 10 teams willing to give Edvinsson maximum term at $11MM per season. Some probably will be, but others will be hoping (if not expecting) that price to come down if he gets his way and gets traded.
It’s also important to note that not a lot of teams can afford him at that price. Yes, Detroit would presumably take a player or two back but unless there’s a headliner in there, the acquiring team will be adding a fair bit of payroll.
I suspect that might limit the number of teams willing to go the max route as well.
Speaking of payroll, I want to highlight a little-known CBA element here. Without going into the dry specifics, Edvinsson’s cap hit will be higher than the average value of the contract this season and then lower after that.
This will be because he signed after the regular season started. The longer he stays unsigned, the bigger the gap becomes.
For example, William Nylander waited until December 1, 2018 to sign his second contract, the last day he could do so (which is also Edvinsson’s deadline). The average value of the contract (dollars divided by years) was around $7.515MM.
His cap hit the rest of the 2018-19 season was over $10.27MM and around $6.96MM the rest of the way. While the lower cap charge the other years will be appealing, the considerably higher cap hit this year on Edvinsson’s eventual deal will make it harder for the acquiring team to fit him in.
I suspect that will push a lot of the external offers below maximum term as a result. Detroit, by the way, is one of the few teams who can afford the inflated cap charge without any issue.
So, is this a bad look on the front office? It’s hard to say since I’m skeptical that there are 10 teams willing to pay that price for him.
It’s probably too early to answer this part of the question. But is this situation a bad look for them in general?
Absolutely. They’ve shot themselves in the foot twice already, one by waiting two months to give Shawn Horcoff the green light to negotiate and the other by unnecessarily insisting on a bridge deal through training camp, leading to the trade preference.
So far, it’s a masterclass on what not to do. We’ll see if they ultimately turn things around and convince him to sign.