Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Chicago’s offseason, early winners and losers, Cutter Gauthier’s situation, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s column while we have two more coming from our latest call for questions.
PyramidHeadcrab: Bowen Byram is not a bad player. He’s quite talented. He was also the third-best defenseman on Buffalo, and yet, Chicago gave away a top pick (#4 overall) to acquire his signing rights, and then signed him to a massive overpay.
I am not going to argue this is a Jeff Finger situation; obviously, Byram is talented. But as a series of moves from Chicago taken together, this looks like some of the poorest asset management the league has seen in quite some time – and that’s in a league where Stan Bowman is somehow a GM and not serving popcorn in the OHL.
If we use historical precedent for comparables, how, if at all, does this hobble Chicago’s odds of returning to contention?
I don’t think this hobbles Chicago’s odds at all. They’re a team that’s still loaded in young talent with a very deep prospect pipeline. And now they have someone who gives their back end a significant boost in Byram.
I think the calculus here was this. When San Jose traded William Eklund to Ottawa, that signaled that they’d take a forward at second overall. They were pretty confident Vancouver would too at number three, meaning that Chicago would be picking a potential top-pairing defenseman down the road if they stayed at number four.
Instead, they traded for someone who they think can be a top-pairing defender now.
And it’s not as if Byram only has a few good years left in him. He just turned 25. He should just be entering the prime years of his career now.
Those prime years should last close to the duration of the six-year contract he just signed, meaning he should be a high-impact core player whenever Chicago makes it back to the postseason and emerges from their rebuild.
Byram has not had the opportunity to be the number one blueliner and that’s part of the impetus for the big extension. He was behind Rasmus Dahlin for prime minutes in Buffalo and behind Cale Makar before that in Colorado. Now, he’s going to be getting top minutes on the power play and probably playing with the top line a lot at five-on-five.
Accordingly, I’m expecting a significant jump in production if he stays healthy, going from 42 to the 60-point range and based on the contract, GM Kyle Davidson is expecting that as well.
Did they pay a hefty price for him? Absolutely, both in terms of the acquisition cost and the contract. But the Blackhawks think Byram can be a 25-minute all-situations player and instead of waiting a few years for a draft pick to show signs of getting there, they have one who they feel can be one now.
It’s a big gamble but if it pays off, I don’t think this sets them back at all from a long-term perspective.
Unclemike1526: Would it be in the Hawks’ best interest to acquire Jordan Binnington from the Blues to be a backup for Knight? Let’s say a 2nd round pick in ’27 and the Blues retain $2MM of Binnington’s $6MM deal? Soderblom is no answer and Commesso is unproven and Binnington could bridge the gap to Gajan who, with Knight, seems to be the future.
Trade Commesso because you don’t need Gajan, Berezhnoy, and Commesso at Rockford. Nobody gets enough playing time in that scenario. Could Commesso bring back a decent RHD prospect at least?
Thanks.
If the acquisition price was that low to get Binnington, then sure, it’d be in their best interest to help in the short term. But I don’t think St. Louis would have any interest in doing that. If they’re eating a third of the contract before the season starts, it’s going to cost more than a second-round pick.
It’s also unclear if new Blues GM Alex Steen would be willing to trade him within the division to a rival. Given how St. Louis appears to be operating as a retooler and not a rebuilder, I’m not convinced that they’re looking to move him at all right now. Instead, they’ll start the season with their current tandem and then reassess closer to the trade deadline.
I don’t think Davidson is all that interested in making a move to upgrade on Arvid Soderblom, at least to the level of bringing in a significant upgrade that’s going to cost an asset of some value. If Knight is good for 55 starts again, you’re asking for no more than 29 from Soderblom. An upgrade might get a few more wins but I don’t think the Blackhawks are that close to the playoffs where an incremental improvement is going to matter all that much.
The defense in front of him should be at least a little better this season as well so they’re not completely ready to pull the plug. And if they are, they’re probably going to want to give Drew Commesso a look.
Last season was a down year for Commesso which doesn’t help his trade value but it shouldn’t crater it either. Generally speaking, I think he could bring back a decent right-shot blueliner prospect in return, which would be something in between the recent values we’ve seen. Sebastian Cossa yielded a first-round pick while Devon Levi, out of waiver exemption as well, only fetched a third-rounder and a seventh.
I’m not overly worried about a three-goalie logjam in Rockford to start the season either. Those tend to resolve themselves relatively quickly, between injuries, recalls, or the potential for one to get some short-term minutes in the ECHL. It can be managed.
Unclemike1526: As far as the Blackhawks go, I’m getting a bit concerned. Davidson has done a good job so far but I really thought this would be a ”Go all in” offseason this year. Now, I love the Byram move as the Hawks needed a #1 defenseman and I don’t mind the price because he’s a winner.
Plus, I thought with a shiny new extension, Davidson would do more with some extra job security but he seems more likely to keep following the ‘my kids will pan out’ game plan. Could he be an A to B GM? Is he the guy to take them from B to C?
He needs a decent backup goalie to challenge Knight and a right-shot defenseman still at least, right? Now with Bedard out again who steps in for him? Thanks as always.
Let’s stick with the Blackhawks. I don’t think this was the right summer to go all in. They’re still well behind Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota, the top three teams in the Central Division last season.
They’re a fair way behind Utah as well. Nashville should be better than last year, Winnipeg is still in the mix, and St. Louis still looks competitive if nothing else. They’re not a playoff-caliber team yet.
I’m not sure they’re all that close yet, to be honest. This summer was about getting closer. In acquiring and extending Byram, they’ve done that.
A core defender gets them closer to taking that next step. Patrick Kane buys them a short-term upgrade as well. But they’re not near playoff level yet.
Davidson is in a tough spot right now. I have no doubt that he tried to take some other swings in an effort to add another core piece that was ready to contribute next season. It just didn’t happen.
Whether that’s an inability on his end to get the deal done or something more out of their control (such as trade protection being invoked, for example) remains to be seen. Accordingly, I wouldn’t interpret the general inaction (beyond Byram and Kane) as just relying on the kids. He could be more of the transitional GM you suggest but let’s see how things go as more of the young players show they’re ready.
That’s when their trade value ramps up more, giving Davidson his best shot to capitalize. If it still doesn’t happen then, then it’s probably fair to start wondering about that question.
I’ve already covered the backup situation about so let’s focus on the other two points. Another right-shot defender wouldn’t hurt although Ian Cole can play his off-side. The problem is that there aren’t many in free agency.
There’s John Klingberg, Nick Blankenburg, Jeff Petry, and that’s about it in terms of NHL help. The latter two are more depth options while Klingberg could give them a boost offensively but he’d also take away offensive chances from the likes of Sam Rinzel and Artyom Levshunov. If Davidson wants one of them to spend more time in Rockford, Klingberg would make sense but I don’t think that’s the case.
I think they’ll go into camp with what they have and if they need another righty, they’ll keep an eye on the waiver wire.
Connor Bedard’s injury opens up a big hole down the middle but there’s no way to fill that externally. And with this already looking like another year of the rebuild, I’m not sure they should want to do anything big to try to fill that with a stopgap. To start the season, it opens up a spot for Anton Frondell to play regularly down the middle with Frank Nazar probably covering on the top line.
If they want to try to get Ryan Donato going early, that could be another option although he’s not great down the middle. I prefer Nazar and Frondell being the top two centers to start the season though.
Jaysen: Boldy and Faber to New Jersey for the Hughes brothers. Am I nuts? Or am I missing a couple of add-ons to make this work?
Straight up, I don’t think the Devils make this trade with one caveat. If the Hughes brothers say they want to go play together in Minnesota, then this is a workable framework to build off to allow New Jersey to secure a quality return and get some core pieces back. Brock Faber is a solid second defender while Matt Boldy just keeps getting better and is a legitimate top-line winger already.
I think the Wild might have a challenge affording all three of them though. Kirill Kaprizov is locked in at $17MM. It sounds like Quinn Hughes’ next contract will be in that range as well, possibly timed to end at the same time as Jack Hughes is up for a new deal.
If that happens, both Quinn and Jack could plausibly be pushing for $20MM in 2030. Luke Hughes will still be signed for $9MM at that time. Now we’re talking about four players making around $66MM combined with the projected salary cap probably somewhere between $130MM and $140MM if the current revenue projections hold.
That would put the Hughes trio and Kaprizov between 47% and 50% of the Upper Limit. Can a team win with that much tied in a Core Four? Just ask Toronto how hard that was, and that was with a lower percentage than this.
Similarly, I don’t think the Devils are ready to give up on their own goals of having the three together. Their next-highest-paid player is Nico Hischier at $11.7MM moving forward, giving them a bit more wiggle room than Minnesota’s scenario. I don’t hate the framework but unless the Devils find out that they can’t re-sign Jack, I don’t see them wanting to do something like this.
MoneyBallJustWorks: Two-parter: 1) Who are your offseason winners and losers as of today? 2) The Leafs clearly focused on addressing their bottom six, but the fact they didn’t add another playmaker in the top six and are stuck with Morgan Rielly, is this a successful first offseason for John Chayka or a sign of things to come?
For me, the winner of the offseason so far is Washington. They added one of the top wingers available on the trade market in Jordan Kyrou. They added the top free agent in Alex Tuch.
They brought back Alex Ovechkin. They’re set to get a full season out of Cole Hutson, whose offensive contributions should help cover what they lost from John Carlson’s trade at the deadline. This is a solid group built to win now that has the potential to at least push Carolina in the Metropolitan Division.
Six weeks ago, I didn’t think anyone was going to give the Hurricanes a run for their money.
As for the losers, two come to mind. The first is Detroit. Outgoing GM Steve Yzerman has done little to improve their team.
They’ve lost more talent than they’ve gained and their captain wants out, threatening to further weaken their group. It’s hard to see a scenario where they’re going to push to end their 10-year playoff drought.
The second is Seattle and it’s not for a lack of trying from GM Jason Botterill. He was willing to pay a hefty price to land Jason Robertson, both in terms of acquisition and contract but the winger took a pass. The problem is that whatever their Plan B was didn’t work out.
Yes, they re-signed Bobby McMann and added Mackie Samoskevich, believing he has more to give. That’s good. But they also lost Jaden Schwartz, Eeli Tolvanen, and Jamie Oleksiak and didn’t bring in anyone else of consequence.
They remain a team that’s too talented to bottom out and not talented enough to make a real push for a playoff spot and are entering the season with two of their top players (Jared McCann and Vince Dunn) heading into walk years. That’s not a good spot to be in.
As for Toronto, I feel like John Chayka built a bottom six up front that’s well-suited for Craig Berube’s style. The problem is that Berube was fired already, so it will be Jim Hiller benefiting from it. Considering his coaching style, that should work too.
I don’t think they did enough to improve their offense and appear to be leaning into an identity where they try to win 3-2 or 2-1 a lot of nights. If Sergei Bobrovsky is in form, they’ll have a real shot. Otherwise, I think this will go down as an unsuccessful summer for them.
More firepower would have been a big help.
Regarding Morgan Rielly, I don’t think it’s a bad thing if he stays. Darren Raddysh will cover some of the bigger offensive minutes that Rielly isn’t as well-suited to cover anymore. If Rielly plays like a capable number three defender (and I think he can), he can be an asset.
I’d be curious to see if Hiller’s tweaks to the system set Rielly up more for success. If so, not moving him could be a blessing in disguise.
Jolly Roger: Hiring coach Q has been Verbeek’s best piece of business. Ironically, it can also cost him his job. Without his dramatic improvement under coach Q, Carlsson wouldn’t have gotten his $18M.
How far in the playoffs this season the Ducks have to progress in order to save Verbeek’s job?
And what strategy do you expect Verbeek to employ signing Cutter? Offering a mid-term deal would cost less but could make the next extension unaffordable. Offering 8 years would require very difficult cap gymnastics, especially considering that every other GM will be aware how desperate Verbeek is, and will try to take advantage.
I don’t think owners go into seasons thinking that a team has to reach a specific point to justify the GM keeping his job. If that’s the case, there’s already a lack of confidence and keeping someone you have a lack of confidence in isn’t generally a good idea. If the core youngsters keep progressing and the plan looks like it’s on track, then that should be enough to keep Verbeek in the fold.
That could be achieved even with a first-round exit depending on the circumstances.
As for Cutter Gauthier, it looks like the plan is to try to clear some salary to do a longer-term agreement. Frank Vatrano is in play but the acquiring team would be adding $6MM of the $9MM in deferred money on top of the $6MM in actual salary owed over the next two years. That’s going to require a sweetener.
Chris Kreider and Alex Killorn have expiring deals at $6.5MM and $6.25MM respectively, though with more prohibitive 15-team no-trade clauses. If one of them can be moved off the books outright, I think they can get close to a max-term deal done with Gauthier.
But if they can’t move a veteran, they should be able to (barely) squeeze in a one-year deal. That kicks the problem to next year when he’ll have the ability to sign an offer sheet, giving him a bit more leverage while Anaheim should be able to easier afford a pricier long-term agreement at that time.
Plan A, I think, is to move a veteran and sign him long-term now. And with Gauthier not being eligible for an offer sheet, they can take their time with this one, something we know GM Pat Verbeek is a fan of. As long as he’s up front with Gauthier’s camp about the logic in waiting (to try to get something done that’s more desirable for both sides), there shouldn’t be any hard feelings.
And if they can’t do a long-term contract in the end, then they can pivot to a one-year pact and try again next summer.