Penguins Race Against History; Real Truths on Rebuilding

Penguins Race Against History; Real Truths on Rebuilding

Credit: USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

It is hard to believe, but this is the 10th season since the Penguins’ last Stanley Cup championship. The way this season has unfolded so far, it might be the beginning of the end that Penguins fans have dreaded since that title.

Going back to the Islanders and Oilers dynasties of the 1980s, every great run in the NHL eventually comes to an end. With the league now at 32 teams and a salary cap in place to promote parity, it is harder than ever to keep the core of a successful team together for the long term.

The Penguins have done it better than most of their predecessors, but history suggests it might be a while before they are competing for championships again.

Look at the 10 seasons after the NHL’s “dynasty” teams last won a championship, and the road back looks long and arduous. For comparison’s sake, this article examines six franchises that have won multiple Stanley Cups in a short span since 1980 and how each fared in the decade after its last title.

(Tampa Bay, which won in 2020 and 2021, and Florida, which won in 2024 and 2025, are too recent to measure.)

Penguins lines: projected lineup and starting goalie →

These are the Stanley Cups relevant to this comparison:

New York Islanders: 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983

Edmonton Oilers: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990

Detroit Red Wings: 1997, 1998, 2002, 2008

Los Angeles Kings: 2012, 2014

Chicago Blackhawks: 2010, 2013, 2015

Pittsburgh Penguins: 2009, 2016, 2017

So far, the Penguins are following the traditional pattern, minus the “bottom out” phase most of their predecessors went through. Teams that have won multiple championships typically experience a slow slide rather than a quick rebuild.

The first two to five seasons after the final title usually bring playoff hockey, but not championship-level hockey, from the dynasty’s remaining core. Next, the team trades away what is left of that core and bottoms out.

Then it partly recovers: back to the playoffs, but not to championship level.

The worst season after the last championship came anywhere from the third season to the 18th: Oilers third season, Kings fifth, Penguins eighth (so far), Blackhawks ninth, Red Wings 12th and Islanders 18th.

Playoff series won in the decade after the last championship: Islanders 7, Oilers 6, Red Wings 6, Penguins 1, Kings 0, Blackhawks 0. Of the three teams whose dynasties were built entirely in the salary-cap era, the Penguins are the only one to win a series in that decade.

Average points percentage over the decade: The Penguins (.589 through nine seasons) and Red Wings (.581) stayed respectable the longest. The Oilers (.457) and Blackhawks (.473) fell the hardest.

For the Penguins, now in their 10th season since the Cup, last season’s bounce-back fits a common late-window “partial recovery.” Unfortunately for Penguins fans, in this group that partial recovery has tended to come before the bottom falls out, not after it. The Penguins’ low point so far (.488 in 2024-25) is the “best” of the six; every other team’s bottom was .433 or worse.

Playoff trips (of 10)7

Low point in 10-season window1990-91 (.375)

Lowest season since last Cup2000-01 (18th season, .317)

Finals since last Cup1 (1984)

Playoff trips (of 10)6

Low point in 10-season window1992-93 (.357)

Lowest season since last Cup1992-93 (3rd season, .357)

Finals since last Cup3 (2006, 2024, 2025)

Playoff trips (of 10)8

Low point in 10-season window2017-18 (.445)

Lowest season since last Cup2019-20 (12th season, .275)

Finals since last Cup1 (2009)

Playoff trips (of 10)5

Low point in 10-season window2018-19 (.433)

Lowest season since last Cup2018-19 (5th season, .433)

Playoff trips (of 10)3

Low point in 10-season window2023-24 (.317)

Lowest season since last Cup2023-24 (9th season, .317)

Low point in 10-season window2024-25 (.488)

Lowest season since last Cup2024-25 (8th season, .488) so far

“Lowest season” means the lowest points percentage in any full season since the last championship. Two teams hit bottom after the 10-season window closed: the Islanders in their 18th season (21-51-7-3) and the Red Wings in their 12th (17-49-5).

The Penguins’ 3-6-1 start to 2026-27 is too small a sample to count.

Rows shaded red mark each team’s lowest season within its 10-season window.

New York Islanders: After the 1983 Cup (four straight, 1980-83)

PlayoffsLost Stanley Cup Final (EDM)

Key moves and notesStreak of 19 straight playoff series wins ends vs. Edmonton

Key moves and notesCore aging; Gillies, Nystrom and Goring winding down

Key moves and notesArbour steps down after season, moves to front office

Key moves and notes“Easter Epic” quadruple-overtime Game 7 win over Washington; Bossy’s last season (back injury)

Key moves and notesDivision title, then upset by New Jersey; Potvin retires

Key moves and notesFirst low: last in division; Arbour returns midseason; Billy Smith retires

Key moves and notesSneaks into playoffs under .500; Trottier released after season

Key moves and notesWorst season of the window (true bottom comes in 2000-01)

Key moves and notesLaFontaine and Brent Sutter, one of the last dynasty holdovers, traded; Turgeon, Hogue and Krupp acquired

PlayoffsLost conference final (MTL)

Key moves and notesUpset two-time defending champion Pittsburgh in Round 2

The Islanders made the playoffs seven times in 10 seasons but reached only one more Stanley Cup Final (the next season) and one conference final (their 10th season). They have not won a Cup since.

Their true bottom came long after the 10-season window: 21-51-7-3 (.317) in 2000-01, their 18th season after the Cup, following a second slide through the late 1990s. Records are wins-losses-ties; the NHL eliminated ties after the 2003-04 season.

Edmonton Oilers: After the 1990 Cup (five Cups, 1984-90)

Playoffs: Lost conference final (MIN)

Key moves and notes: A .500 team still wins two rounds; Kurri left for Italy before the season

Playoffs: Lost conference final (CHI)

Key moves and notes: Fuhr and Anderson traded (Sept. 1991); Messier traded to the Rangers (Oct.

1991)

Key moves and notes: Bottom: first missed playoffs in franchise NHL history

Key moves and notes: Jason Arnott (1993 first-round pick) debuts

Key moves and notes: Lockout-shortened 48-game season

Key moves and notes: Fourth straight miss; Curtis Joseph acquired

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (COL)

Key moves and notes: Back in playoffs; upset Dallas in seven games

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (DAL)

Key moves and notes: Upset Colorado after trailing the series 3-1

Finish: 2nd Northwest

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (DAL)

Key moves and notes: Local ownership group, which bought the team in 1998, keeps it in Edmonton

Finish: 2nd Northwest

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (DAL)

Key moves and notes: Third straight playoff exit against Dallas

The Oilers had the quickest fall from grace. They reached two conference finals on leftover talent from the glory days, then missed the playoffs four straight seasons once the core was sold off.

They returned to the playoffs in their seventh season but never got past the second round in the window. Their third season (1992-93, .357) is still their lowest since the Cup; even their worst rebuilding seasons of the 2010s bottomed out at .378.

Their next Stanley Cup Final came in 2006, their 16th season after the Cup, and they have not won the Cup since. Records are wins-losses-ties; 1999-2000 adds overtime losses.

Detroit Red Wings: After the 2008 Cup (four Cups, 1997-2008)

Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (PIT)

Key moves and notes: Lost Game 7 at home; Hossa signed for one year, then left

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (SJ)

Key moves and notes: Beat Phoenix in seven games, then lost to San Jose in five

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (SJ)

Key moves and notes: Lost Game 7 after rallying from 3-0 down in the series

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (NSH)

Key moves and notes: Nicklas Lidstrom retires after season

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (CHI)

Key moves and notes: Lockout-shortened; blew 3-1 series lead to eventual champion Chicago

Finish: 4th Atlantic

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (BOS)

Key moves and notes: Moved to Eastern Conference

Finish: 3rd Atlantic

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (TB)

Key moves and notes: Babcock leaves for Toronto after season

Finish: 3rd Atlantic

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (TB)

Key moves and notes: 25th straight playoff trip; Datsyuk leaves for the KHL

Finish: 7th Atlantic

Key moves and notes: Streak ends; last season at Joe Louis Arena

Finish: 5th Atlantic

Key moves and notes: Zetterberg’s last season; Steve Yzerman returns as GM in 2019

Detroit had the most graceful slide: eight straight playoff trips, extending a streak that reached 25 seasons, but only one series win after the fourth season. The streak ended in the ninth season.

The real bottom came after the 10-season window: 17-49-5 (.275) in 2019-20, the 12th season after the Cup and the lowest season of any team in this comparison. Detroit has not made the playoffs since 2016, 10 straight misses through 2025-26.

Records are wins-losses-overtime losses.

Los Angeles Kings: After the 2014 Cup (two Cups, 2012 and 2014)

The Kings missed the playoffs the very next season and never won a playoff series in the 10-season window. However, they rebuilt the fastest of the six.

They bottomed out in their fifth season (2018-19, .433, still their lowest since the Cup) and were back to 99 or more points by their eighth. But the rebuilt team lost in the first round three straight seasons inside the window, each time to Edmonton, and again in 2025.

Records are wins-losses-overtime losses.

Key moves and notes: Defending champion misses; Mike Richards’ contract terminated after season

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (SJ)

Key moves and notes: Milan Lucic’s one-year stay

Key moves and notes: Jonathan Quick hurt most of the season; coach Darryl Sutter and GM Dean Lombardi fired

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (VGK)

Key moves and notes: Swept by expansion Vegas

Key moves and notes: Bottom: last in the division; Muzzin traded

Key moves and notes: Full rebuild; Toffoli traded

Key moves and notes: 56-game season; Quinton Byfield (No. 2 overall pick, 2020) arrives

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (EDM)

Key moves and notes: Phillip Danault and Viktor Arvidsson added; lost Game 7

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (EDM)

Key moves and notes: Kevin Fiala acquired

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (EDM)

Key moves and notes: Coach Todd McLellan fired midseason

Chicago Blackhawks: After the 2015 Cup (three Cups, 2010-15)

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (STL)

Key moves and notes: Salary-cap casualties Saad, Sharp and Oduya gone; Kane wins the Hart Trophy, Panarin the Calder

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (NSH)

Key moves and notes: First in the West, swept by eighth seed Nashville

Key moves and notes: Panarin traded for Saad; Hossa out for good; Crawford injured

Key moves and notes: Coach Joel Quenneville fired in November

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (VGK)

Key moves and notes: 12th seed in COVID-19 bubble; beat Edmonton in qualifying round

Key moves and notes: Toews out all season

Key moves and notes: GM Stan Bowman resigns; Kyle Davidson starts teardown; DeBrincat traded after season

Key moves and notes: Kane traded to the Rangers; Toews’ last season; win Bedard draft lottery

Key moves and notes: Bottom: worst season in any team’s 10-season window; Bedard wins the Calder

Key moves and notes: Coach Luke Richardson fired midseason

Chicago stayed elite for two seasons after its last championship, including a 109-point, first-place season. Then it fell off a cliff when salary-cap pressure and an aging core hit at the same time.

It took until the seventh season to commit to a teardown, and the ninth (2023-24, .317) was the worst season in any of the six teams’ 10-season windows. The Blackhawks improved to .439 in 2025-26 but still missed the playoffs.

Drafting Connor Bedard in 2023 finally seemed like the start of the rebuild. Records are wins-losses-overtime losses.

Pittsburgh Penguins: After the 2017 Cup (three Cups, 2009-17)

Pittsburgh posted a points percentage of .610 or better in each of its first five seasons after the Cup but won only one playoff series (2018). Unlike their peers, the Penguins have never completely torn down the roster; the core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang has aged in place.

The team missed the playoffs three straight seasons (2022-23 through 2024-25) but rebounded last season with 98 points under new coach Dan Muse. Their low so far, 2024-25 (.488, their eighth season), is the “shallowest” bottom of the six, which could suggest the real bottom is still to come.

Records are wins-losses-overtime losses.

Playoffs: Lost Round 2 (WSH)

Key moves and notes: Marc-Andre Fleury lost to Vegas in expansion draft; lost to eventual champion Washington

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (NYI)

Key moves and notes: Swept by the Islanders

Playoffs: Lost qualifying round (MTL)

Key moves and notes: Upset by 12th-seeded Montreal in COVID-19 bubble

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (NYI)

Key moves and notes: Best points percentage of the window; GM Jim Rutherford resigns, Ron Hextall hired

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (NYR)

Key moves and notes: Blew 3-1 series lead; Fenway Sports Group buys team

Key moves and notes: Ends 16-year playoff streak; Kyle Dubas hired after season

Key moves and notes: Erik Karlsson acquired; Jake Guentzel traded at deadline

Key moves and notes: Low point so far; Mike Sullivan departs after season

Playoffs: Lost Round 1 (PHI)

Key moves and notes: Dan Muse hired; rallied from 0-3 series deficit, lost Game 6 in overtime; Malkin re-signs for one year

Playoffs: In progress

Key moves and notes: Through Oct. 19, 10 games played

The statistics do not lie. Not one of these six teams has won another Stanley Cup.

That is 43 years and counting for the Islanders, 36 for Edmonton, 18 for Detroit, 12 for Los Angeles and 11 for Chicago. Rebuilding back to a championship-caliber team has either taken longer than a decade or not happened at all.

The Penguins’ timeline most closely follows the Red Wings’. Both kept a franchise core and strong point totals for several seasons, but that did not translate into playoff success.

Then each missed the playoffs: the Penguins in their sixth through eighth seasons after the Cup, the Red Wings in their ninth and 10th. Detroit’s real bottom (.275) arrived 12 seasons after its last championship.

The Penguins’ low so far is mild in comparison: a .488 points percentage in 2024-25. If the Penguins’ trajectory follows the Red Wings’, the rock-bottom part of their rebuild is still ahead.

So, is this season the beginning of the end? History suggests the end began a few seasons ago, and last spring’s playoff return may prove to be an outlier, not a turnaround.

For a franchise that has leaned on Crosby, Malkin and Letang for two decades, the real rebuild may not begin until they are gone.

Statistics via Hockey-Reference.com, through games of Oct. 19, 2026.

Points percentage is points earned divided by points available.