At various points in this off-season, Insiders have reported either that Connor Hellebuyck is open to a trade to the Buffalo Sabres or is outright desirous of one.
In either case, this is such an obvious opportunity for the Sabres to upgrade at the most important position in hockey that they basically have to pursue Hellebuyck — now clearly the best goalie of his era and arguably top-five in the history of the sport — as far as they possibly can. It would be irresponsible not to.
It’s hard to guess exactly what the Winnipeg Jets would want back for an elite player at a premium position, but there were reports at the draft that the ask was something like the No. 4 pick, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Jack Quinn, and another prospect. Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff may have backed out of the deal.
Luukkonen and Quinn (or someone of similar value), a pair of first-round picks (to replace the value of the No. 4 Buffalo used on Daxon Rudolph), and maybe a couple of decent prospects likely gets it done, or close. While you certainly don’t sweat losing Luukkonen given that it’s a goalie swap, the loss of Quinn is difficult but not impossible to swallow. The rebuild has to be over for Buffalo, too, so they shouldn’t care about the loss of picks and prospects.
But even adding the best goalie in the world — and, by the way, hoping he bounces back from a fairly ordinary season by his standards — maybe doesn’t necessarily raise the Sabres’ ceiling all that much in this year’s Eastern Conference.
Are they a playoff team? Absolutely. Maybe even a very good one.
However, if the trade goes through, the Sabres will have lost a lot of offense this summer (Alex Tuch to Washington via free agency, Bowen Byram to Chicago, and, in this scenario, Quinn to Winnipeg) and replaced it with a gamble that they can fix what went wrong for Olen Zellweger in Anaheim.
Sure, some young guys should continue to grow their games, like Konsta Helenius, Noah Östlund, Josh Doan, and Zach Benson, but it’s tough to replace the 64 goals those three departures contributed last season. In fact, the Sabres scored 30 goals more than their expected-goals total, according to moneypuck.com, so that offensive output was likely to drop even before they lost two of their top-five goalscorers from last season.
Let’s also keep in mind that Luukkonen had an outstanding year (.909 save percentage with 10.5 goals saved above expected), and Alex Lyon (.906 SP, 12.6 GSAx) likely won’t have a season that good again.
How much of that does Hellebuyck make up? Probably a good chunk, but certainly not all. And besides, the regular season isn’t — and shouldn’t be — the focus.
No matter what you think of the Sabres’ luck last season, they set a bar that now stands firmly as'make the second round. And if they add Hellebuyck, who has MVP potential, the bar probably feels even higher.
Tough to say, though, that it should be. Again, playoff qualification — especially with Hellebuyck in the fold and even without him — is not a question. Improving on their finish last season is.
And that trade, should it go through, significantly raises the stakes for a team that might have been a little precocious last season.
The floor with Hellebuyck is certainly higher than it would be with Luukkonen, Lyon, and Colton Ellis. 'Goalies are voodoo,' for sure, but it really felt like the Sabres battery punched above its weight last season.
The ceiling might not rise as much as you think unless the Sabres are betting that Hellebuyck goes “2026 Olympics” mode and regains his MVP form for the first few rounds of the playoffs, which is absolutely within the realm of possibility and may even veer into likelihood.
So it’s a worthwhile bet for Buffalo. Quinn is a very good youngish player, but isn’t such a big needle-mover that he should be a sticking point, and again, when an elite talent becomes available to you, it’s a no-brainer to pursue him. If it increases their odds to make the Eastern Conference Final by even five percent, they’re at a point in their competitive cycle where that’s worth the tradeoff.