Mar 28, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Rutger McGroarty (2) skates with the puck against Dallas Stars center Justin Hryckowian (49) during the first period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Sometimes buzzwords ring true. Whether it be now, mid-season, or even next summer, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas is pushing for sustainability.
As Dubas sees the current state of the Penguins rebuild, he understands the organization has two very different types of players. The Penguins have superstars who have played well and played long beyond their expected expiration dates, and they have a growing crop of young players and prospects well under 25 who have not yet reached their full potential. And they have very little in between, which is the very thing Dubas wants to correct, and the only way to do it is via a splash or two on the NHL trade market.
In the meantime, the Penguins are continuing down the straight path of a rebuild, albeit more aggressively than a traditional straight-ahead march using only the draft. Dubas’s push to acquire young players who carry some risk has been a relatively unique wrinkle to the old process and thus far has successfully accelerated the rebuild. But when will the Penguins’ process crest from its upward trajectory?
The first guardrail in the rebuild is expected peak performance. Generally, players reach their optimal performance and remain within a 10% range from 24 to 28 years old. Amongst the Penguins youngsters, only Egor Chinakhov is entering that window.
We’ll also factor a few years of NHL experience for players being necessary to reach their potential. The rest of the Penguins crop of young players are in various stages of progression. Ben Kindel got a well-deserved head start by making the big team as an 18-year-old, but following Kindel is a crop of players who haven’t yet achieved regular NHL work.
Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Tristan Broz, Owen Pickering, and Avery Hayes are the players on deck to arrive, or not, this season. Of the group, Pickering has the most leeway but could lose it quickly if his late-season progress reverses, and Koivunen has the least time as he remains an unsigned restricted free agent and is no longer waivers-exempt. If Koivunen doesn’t land on the Penguins NHL roster this fall, he very well might land in a new organization.
Such is the definition of Dubas’s postseason admission that he and his staff knew that not every prospect would land. McGroarty, Pickering, and Broz are coming into make-or-break years in which they’ll be seen as part of the future or be in danger of being labeled as not good enough. Pointedly, the players don’t necessarily need to claim full-time NHL work to be seen as part of the future, but they will need to show the organization that patience is being rewarded and they’ll be ready by 2027-28.
We like all three’s chances to land in the NHL in some way, but perhaps not to the level they or the organization had hoped. On defense, a couple of other players will get their big chance this season to show their skills. Defensemen Declan Carlile and Kaedan Korczak were acquired (free agency and via trade, respectively) to full prominent roles on the Penguins blue line, but they–like Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea before them–are question marks.
It would be nice if every player achieved what Wotherspoon and Shea did, but probably not likely, no matter how good the Penguins scouting staff and talent evaluators. Harrison Brunicke, 20, is another prospect who should contribute at the NHL level this season, and is a couple of years ahead of schedule. In fact, 2026-27 will be the first year of his entry-level contract because he played in only nine NHL games last season, meaning the first year of his ELC slides to this season.
However, behind the immediate wave of players who may or may not land, there is a gap to the weighty but young draft of 2025. From the top of the class, including Bill Zonnon and Will Horcoff, to the potential diamonds in the rough, like Ryan Miller and Charlie Trethewey, it’s likely to be at least two years before they land on NHL shores. And it’s probably three years or four years before Penguins fans can fawn over the Ruck twins on NHL ice.
So, there will be a prospect invasion, but it probably won’t truly begin until 2028, and then add a couple or few years for the players to reach their full capabilities before the real upswing takes flight. The Penguins rebuild is on increasingly solid ground, but the organization is two years away from having talent that might have the ability to fill top-six roles.
They will remain competitive as the current group begins to assimilate
and as Dubas makes more trades. Of course, exactly how big those acquisitions are, and how much he gives up, will also change the realistic expectations, too.