In his first three seasons in the NHL, Utah Mammoth's Dylan Guenther never scored more than 27 goals or 60 points. But in Year 4, everything clicked, and the 23-year-old exploded with 40 goals and 73 points in 79 games.
It's a reminder that everyone's breakout year looks different.
For Macklin Celebrini, who finished fourth in scoring as a sophomore, it came together in Year 2. For Matthew Schaefer, who won the Calder Trophy last season, it happened right away. For Juraj Slafkovsky, who had 30 goals and 73 points, it took four years.
So who will be next season's breakout stars? Well, based on last season, you're likely to see rookies, sophomores and some late-bloomers.
Here's five players who could be in line for a big-time breakout:
KONSTA HELENIUS, C, BUFFALO SABRES
With Alex Tuch gone, there’s going to be a void to fill when it comes to offensive production in Buffalo next season. And while it might be too much to ask Konsta Helenius to replace Tuch’s output and score 33 goals and 66 points, the potential is there.
The 20-year-old Finn, who was selected 14th overall in 2024, scored 21 goals and tied for the team lead with 62 points in the minors last season. Helenius also gave a glimpse of what’s to come with a couple of goals in four playoff games for the Sabres.
As defenseman Mattias Samuelsson told reportersin the spring, “I don’t think he lacks confidence at all — in a good way.”
PORTER MARTONE, RW, PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
The early favorite for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, Martone already received a taste of the NHL — and the Stanley Cup playoffs — by scoring four goals and 10 points in nine regular-season games at the end of last season.
He then followed it up with two goals and five points in 10 playoff games. In the process, the 6-foot-3 and 210-pound Martone, who is still only 19 years old, looked like anything but someone who had spent the majority of the year in college.
” said Philadelphia Flyers coach Rick Tocchet. In other words, he's more than ready to pop off.
IVAN DEMIDOV, RW, MONTREAL CANADIENS
Last year, Demidov led all rookies with 19 goals and 62 points. And yet, watching him in the playoffs, where he had three goals and nine points in 19 games, you saw a youngster who looked like he was just scratching the surface of what he will eventually become in the NHL.
Demidov is fast, skilled, and wants the puck on his stick in critical moments. With the Montreal Canadiens looking to build upon the success of their Eastern Conference appearance, it's critical that he takes the next step in his development.
For someone with his ability, don't be surprised if that step looks more like a leap and he scores 40 goals next season.
MASON MCTAVISH, C, ST. LOUIS BLUES
McTavish has already played over 300 games in the NHL. But don't let his resume fool you. The 23-year-old, who was recently traded from the Anaheim Ducks to the St. Louis Blues, is still young and still figuring out whether he'll be a 15-20 goal scorer or whether he can make the jump and become a 30-goal scorer.
Based on what we've seen so far — he had 22 goals and 52 points a couple of years ago — the potential is there. And now that he's with the Blues, look for him to get the kind of opportunity that might have eluded him with the Ducks, where a deep forward group kept McTavish playing behind the likes of Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke and Chris Kreider.
NICK ROBERTSON, LW, PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
The younger brother of Jason Robertson, Nick Robertson, hasn’t had nearly the same level of success as Dallas’ two-time 50-goal scorer. But a change of scenery might be just what the 24-year-old winger needs to unlock his potential.
After all, the Pittsburgh Penguins have had great success with reclamation projects recently. Last year, Anthony Mantha scored a career-best 33 goals while Yegor Chinakhov had 18 goals and 36 points in 48 games after being traded to the Penguins.
So maybe Robertson, who never scored 20 goals during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs despite being a top performer in the OHL, can do the same. If so, Pittsburgh could be looking at a second straight playoff appearance.