When defenseman Jacob Trouba hit free agency on July 1st, many expected him to receive a multi-year deal, including AFP Analytics, which projected a four-year deal worth $25.6MM ($6.4MM annually). While that figure seemed lofty for a player who was a cap dump just a year and a half prior, Trouba exceeded it by nearly $2MM annually, leaving some fans scratching their heads.
The deal divided fans, with some arguing that San Jose has plenty of cap space, so it isn’t an issue, while detractors pointed to the AAV, the term, Trouba’s play and his age as problems with his contract.
Trouba had a solid year in Anaheim during the 2025-26 season, settling into a second-pairing role and eating up minutes while remaining a physical force. Some folks will point to his 10 goals and 25 assists in 81 games, his nearly 23 minutes a night of ice time, and the 143 hits, and say he earned his $8.25MM cap hit. But it’s fair to wonder whether that’s the player the Sharks are getting, particularly when those results have not been common for Trouba in recent years.
Trouba’s strengths are obvious. He’s aggressive, delivers big hits, jumps into the play, and can shoot. But many of those strengths come with a glaring weakness.
Trouba’s aggressiveness often leads to odd-man rushes again, particularly off the rush, when he can no longer skate like he used to. It also leads him to overcommit and miss defensive assignments in his own zone. That leaves him chasing the game quite often, which is a difficult spot to be in when you’ve lost a step or two.
Trouba’s cap hit is hard to justify, but the term may be the riskiest part of the deal. Defensemen like Trouba don’t generally age well, and Trouba will be 36 in the final year of his contract. Even if San Jose doesn’t pay the price for Trouba’s contract this year, they likely will in one of the final three years.
Trouba’s deal was recently ranked the fifth-worst contract in the NHL by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, who believes Trouba’s on-ice value resembles that of a No. 4/5 defenseman. Daily Faceoff held a similar view, calling it the second-worst free-agent signing.
From San Jose’s standpoint, the team saw enough value in Trouba’s game to pay him so handsomely and to value the intangibles he will bring. The Sharks want to be harder to play against, protect their young superstars, and begin to establish a bit of a culture by bringing in good pros. Trouba checks all of those boxes.
San Jose also has a tremendous amount of cap flexibility even with Trouba and should still be able to manage their superstars’ extensions in the future. But what they likely lose by overpaying Trouba is the ability to make a future move to improve their team, because the cap will get tight with Macklin Celebrini’s new extension, as well as the eventual deal for forward Will Smith.
That flexibility San Jose has now will begin to disappear over the next 12-18 months. As Daily Faceoff ranked it, Trouba may not have signed the worst contract. However, it’s fair to argue that it was one of the biggest overpayments, and whether or not it was necessary is up for debate.
There is also the concern of overuse with Trouba, as happened in New York with the Rangers, where he was used heavily in a top-four role and the results were tepid at best and disastrous at worst. That is going to be a concern in San Jose, where they don’t really have a top right-shot defenseman to handle first-pairing minutes. While Dmitry Orlov is a solid top-four defender, it’s hard to imagine him taking that role, or Michael Kesselring, recently acquired, for that matter.
Therein lies a massive concern for San Jose when it comes to Trouba. At 32, he is no longer a difference-maker and really hasn’t been since his days in Winnipeg. Sure, he has some intangibles, and he’s tough and plays on the edge, often over the edge.
He’s not a top defenseman, and he likely will be asked to be that in San Jose.
Again, folks will point to San Jose’s cap hit and say that Trouba’s AAV isn’t an issue. But it isn’t an issue now. Down the line, we don’t know what kind of a concern it will be, and much of that will depend on his play and any potential regression.
But an important point often missed in the Trouba signing is something that economists call opportunity cost, which could come into play for the Sharks. The term opportunity cost means “The hidden or lost benefit from choosing one option over another.” Effectively, it means that every time you choose to do something or buy something, you miss out on the value of whatever item or thing you did not pick.
That is something the Sharks and their fans could have to contend with if Trouba reverts to his old ways. Every NHL team deal with opportunity cost when they sign or trade for a player instead of a different one, and often the regret is felt, especially in player transactions. If Trouba falls on his face and the Sharks struggle down the road, fans may look back on the Trouba signing as a miss, something that costs them other pieces down the line.