The NHL has a new highest cap hit, thanks to Macklin Celebrini.
With the San Jose Sharks' signing of Celebrini to a five-year contract extension worth $18.8 million per season, he has leaped over Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson's $18-million cap hit.
With Carlsson and Celebrini's new deals, it's looking like the first NHLer to reach a $20-million cap hit is closer than once thought.
If we had to make a calculated prediction, the player most likely to earn $20 million or more per year on his next contract is the consensus best player on the planet: Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid.
First, we have to acknowledge it's entirely possible that Colorado Avalanche superstar defenseman Cale Makar could get there first. The Avalanche can sign him to an extremely lucrative contract extension right now, well before he becomes a UFA next summer, and adjust the roster accordingly to ensure there's room for him and Nathan MacKinnon.
But the culture in Colorado in the NHL's Salary Cap Era is for their stars to give the team some cap flexibility. Makar reportedly was convinced to take less money on his current contract back in 2022, and MacKinnon has talked before about not necessarily taking a discount but ensuring there's room to win a Cup with this group. We don't see that changing now that Joe Sakic is settling back into his role as Avs GM.
Makar will get paid handsomely, but it might not be at the $20-million level yet.
The other candidate is Minnesota Wild superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes, who's also scheduled to become a UFA next summer.
Hughes is easily going to double his current salary of $7.85 million, but if Hughes intends to play with brothers Jack and Luke Hughes – probably as members of the New Jersey Devils – he would almost definitely have to take less than $20 million on his next contract so that New Jersey can fit all of them on the roster.
Even if he wants to stay with the Wild, he'll probably get at least Kirill Kaprizov's salary of $17 million, but saving $2 million or $3 million could help improve Minnesota's chances of remaining competitive.
That brings us back to McDavid.
The 29-year-old is about to enter the first season of a two-year contract with the Oilers on a huge discount at $12.5 million per season. But in no other professional sport do you see the consensus top player consistently playing at a massive financial discount relative to the rest of the league. And really, that's all McDavid has done in Edmonton, all in the name of icing a highly competitive Oilers team that hasn't gotten over the hump.
To his credit, McDavid has never prioritized being the planet's highest-paid player. But at some point, he needs to be paid closer to market value. That means he should push into the $20 million range when he becomes a UFA in 2028, because even that could be a good deal for him and his team in the not-so-distant future.
Nobody would begrudge McDavid making that amount of money. So whether he signs another extension with the Oilers or joins a team like the Los Angeles Kings or the Toronto Maple Leafs when his current contract expires, McDavid should have no qualms about being paid like he's the best player in the game.
Don't get it twisted – we believe Celebrini is going to be worth every penny of his new contract. At 20 years old, Celebrini will only get better as he matures. But if you asked veteran hockey observers who they'd want at this moment – Celebrini or McDavid – they'd pick McDavid.
He's more accomplished right now than Celebrini, and McDavid is currently at his peak.
If McDavid wants to stay in Edmonton for the rest of his career, the Oilers should happily pay him at least $20 million per season. That's not in question. But the Oilers must also prove to McDavid they give him the best chance at winning a Stanley Cup.
And the days when McDavid willingly leaves millions of dollars on the table could be coming to an end. Meanwhile, you'd better believe there are many NHL player agents and members of the NHL Players Association who want McDavid to max out his financial window. There are lots of people with something at stake when it comes to McDavid's next salary.
It's a great narrative that McDavid is willing to take less money to make the Oilers more competitive. But sooner rather than later, it's unfair to ask the straw that stirs the drink not to be paid like it.
Could the same be said for Makar and Hughes? Sure, but they aren't the No. 1 player in the game like McDavid is, and both players can more than double their salary without getting $20 million, unlike McDavid.
So while we'll allow for the possibility that another player will reach the $20-million plateau first, we're still going to predict that McDavid will be that person.